USED MH Values? UP or DOWN or STABLE - COVID19 Reaction

[Tom Cherry]

I have been spending a LOT of time on my NCSU Sports Blog.  As a 75 YO and also a Retired Health and Safety Director....as well as being on the Board of Trustees at my church along with some other committees that are coping with how to "run a church by remote control", i have been following ....  as many are....the COVID-19 Pandemic.  

I GUESS, for a background, that it hit us like a sledge hammer in early March.  I suggested that we purchase Hand Sanitizers (when they were available) and after getting some consensus.....POOF....THEY WAS GONE.  

OK.....we were going to the ACC Mens BB Tournament in early March at Greensboro.  Some of you know the background.  I have been caravaning to that event since 2007.  We have traveled to various cities and Greensboro is the "Garden of Eden".  Our wagonmaster was the GM for a HR and Chevy and HD Chevy Truck dealership in Greensboro and he convinced the BOD of the Coliseum to put in an RV lot or section.  He gave them his dealership electrical plans and also came over and spray painted the spots for the Electrical (50 and 30 and single 120) pedestals and the water.  They found out.....it was a HOT TICKET.

SO, each year, in November, we had to purchase our "Spots" for the March event.  Since our head guy was the one that set them down this path, we got the prime spot.  We even had a "Town Name" and he was the Mayor.  We had big cookouts and fed the local cops and parking lot folks.  We had visits from about 5 different local TV stations and such.  We did interviews and let them set up on top of our MH.'s.  TWO of our members would bring in the "Vehicles" from their businesses so they pitched in a little extra $$.

OK....we set up on Sunday.  The MBBACCT started on Tuesday.  We went up and watched the Women's ACC tourney and came home and then went back on on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, there was MORE and MORE talk about Covid.  We kept out distance and used sanitizers and never TOUCHED a hand rail inside the building.  We did NOT use the bathrooms.  Late that evening, they announced that they night games would be the LAST with "FANS" and they would play the REST without fans.  We set up our TV's and were outside and cooking....and THEN our "Mayor" got a text from a HIGH RANKING OFFICIAL in the ACC Conference office.....WATCH THE TV>>>>>>IT IS OVER.  SO, we did.

We then broke camp and went home.  When the ACC and the NCAA canceled and then the NBA and then all the OTHER pro sports....that was a BIG DEAL....little did we know.

Our sports blog has a lot of researchers and scientists and engineers and such.  We now have a thread with over 30,000 posts.  I learn a LOT there. 

BUT, we also have diversified.  We talke retirement and cord cutting and "DIVERSIONS".   

ONE has been the skyrocketing prices and availability of upscale PU's and Boats and RV's.  NOW....we did not pay too much attention.  BUT, we have been out 3 times in the past month.  There are MORE first timers out there than I have EVER seen.  You can spot them....or their temporary tags.

I looked at one guy's popup.  I googled and it was the CHEAPEST Flagstaff Pop-up. $15K.  OMG.  I remember when the TOP END of the Starcrafts was $4,500 and I bought one because in 1977, there was NO demand and the dealer cut me a deal and also valued my old one at way MORE than I had paid for it.

BOTTOM LINE.....many of our sports blogger's relatives are heading to LD and bringing back NEW MH.  One filled up his new Mercedes powered one with Non-Ethanol.....as there was Diesel and Non-Ethanol on the same pump.  It quit running about 5 miles down the road.  No word on the "cost" of his first FILLUP.

SO.....and maybe Chris can jump in here.....are USED Class A MH's increasing in price or is it just the newer ones that are in demand.  I was at Lake Tillery in central NC last week.  The number of $50K - $75K ski and WB boats surprised me.  I had to GOOGLE and look at the prices just to believe that.

Thanks.....

[Hotrod - R.I.P.]

My solution is a big ass Cybertruck on order. If I get to old for the class A, the Cybertruck climate controlled vault ought to do the trick.  Probably won’t see it for a couple years and hope I can tow it 4 down.

info at Tesla.com

[Guest Tim503]

I bought my 98 in 2006 and that used to be the cut off for used. Yours is 11 years really 12 so it is time to sell for the best return you can probably hope to get. A quality rig maybe a bit longer than they want. But I hear it nation wide the popularity of RV's. I'm thinking of getting my 98 Suburban on Craigslist as a camper car. Just being 75 is the issue but leaving the lifestyle is a hard one.

[6Wheels]

I have seen "asking price" go through the roof.  Our local boat broker sold 98 boats by June 30, which is triple the usual.

If you sell to a dealer nothing has changed,  for instance our coach is NDAA average retail 126k, but dealer will offer 90k on a trade.

I see about a 10% premium over normal pricing.

[throgmartin]

Tom:

Used diesel coach prices were in flux in February and March.  From everything I have seen, the prices seem to be stable now but still a touch depressed. At the start of the pandemic used coach prices dropped like a rock. I believe it was a panic move due to Covid and  also campgrounds closing down.  But then wholesale prices came back after people started realizing " Hey.... I can social distance in a coach like I can at home ".  Then another development occurred which boosted prices - vacation travel by traditional means was closed down because it was unsafe - flights, hotels, cruises, etc. . This new way of thinking firmed up the prices on used coaches and in most cases prices climbed back to normal levels.  I cannot speak for all of you but there is no way in hell I am spending the night in a hotel. My head wont lie on a community pillow, my body wrapped in community bedding and my fat butt sitting on a toilet seat 100 other people have used in the last 90 days. Call me Howard Hughes and a germ nut but it is what it is and this is the new mindset.  That is the beauty of RV's - my bed, my pillows, my kitchen, my toilet, my personal space. In other words you can lock the door to your bus and tell the world to go away.

People should not equate the huge boom in RV Sales as helping them sell their used coach for a premium.  I get RV sales and financials sent to me through RVDA as we are members. I dissect all the numbers and time and again the reports prove Class A sales are no where near what they used to be. We have to remember while RV sales are currently off the charts and dealers cannot get inventory on their lots, all of this has nothing to do with us who own older coaches. The entire boom in RV sales is almost all towables. Sales of new class A coaches, diesels in particular, are still depressed with diesel coaches seeing a 19 % drop. This also carries over to used coaches.

I think all of us are OK with our used coach values going forward but do not think for a second what you own is gold. The used diesel market is still crowded, inventory plentiful and there remains some awesome deals out there for those who are patient, take their time and look for good deals. These deals are out there and they undercut the price you can ask. I watch listings of used coaches and sometimes have to shake my head. Coach owners listing prices that are pipe dreams that will never be obtained. Some price their coaches based on emotional attachment. And then there are those who list coaches according to NADA values. NADA is nothing more then a price value that will get you into the ball park but what I am seeing is the sales that are being closed are selling well below NADA prices. I recently seen a used coach for sale and the seller was asking a $ 20 K premium because he oput new tires and batteries in it along with a few other updates. Excuse me sir but that extra $ 20 K will buy me a lot of new tires and batteries.

There is one last item you have to throw into the mix of used coaches when pricing them fairly and it is a biggie - financing. Many older coaches are being sold as cash deals because it is nearly impossible to get financing on old coaches.  Many buyers of older coaches are having to write checks for the full amount out of their 401 K's, proceeds from the sale of a home or by selling investments. This all means you, as a private seller,  are taking a lot of potential sales off the table because you cannot offer financing like a dealer can. Even worse, some dealers even have a hard time financing older coaches. I talked to one of my dealer buddies out West who specializes in Prevost sales. He told me he could get a non slide 2000 Prevost financed quicker then an 05 Monaco. Why ? Because he uses specialized banks who will buy his deals based on the coach versus age. It also equates to some dealers having personal relationships with banks. Let all of this sink in before selling your used coach - your buyer, depending on the age of your coach, is going to have a helluva time getting financing.

So in a nutshell, if you are buying than look for some screaming deals. If you are selling remember you are up against a lot of used coaches that are sitting on the market not to mention your market is limited in many cases to all cash sales. 

 

[throgmartin]

Tom:

I forgot to mention, I recently read an article where 2 boat dealers near me completely sold out of their inventory. 2 months ago I was shopping for a 32 - 40 ft cabin cruiser. I seen the prices and was floored. Then my brain trust ( my wife ) made mention of the fact that we already own a sinking asset and money pit ( our coach ). Why the hell would you buy another one ? If you are that stupid then you might as well buy an airplane as well. ( I love this woman and the way she reels me in from dumb ideas ). So now we are trying to buy an appreciating asset - land/acreage - that we can install electric, well and septic on and use for weekend getaways. Guess what ? Every other dang Floridian must have the same idea as these properties are being sold as quick as they are listed. I kid you not sales of high and dry vacant land is exploding down here in the swamp ( Florida ). If you want to see some crazy prices check out land values in the mountain areas of Georgia. Vacation or retreat properties are smoking hot right now.

I am going to make an offer on 2 acres on the Suwannee river tomorrow morning that has all utilities there, a drive cut into the property and an existing boat dock. It is all set up to park a coach on and as a matter of fact we can park several coaches there. ( Now just watch some jackwagon buy it out from under me ). 🙂

From everything I am seeing - social distancing is the new normal and anything, be it a boat, vacation property or an RV that can provide social distancing is in demand.

[Tom Cherry]

6 minutes ago, throgmartin said:

Tom:

Used diesel coach prices were in flux in February and March.  From everything I have seen, the prices seem to be stable now but still a touch depressed. At the start of the pandemic used coach prices dropped like a rock. I believe it was a panic move due to Covid and  also campgrounds closing down.  But then wholesale prices came back after people started realizing " Hey.... I can social distance in a coach like I can at home ".  Then another development occurred which boosted prices - vacation travel by traditional means was closed down because it was unsafe - flights, hotels, cruises, etc. . This new way of thinking firmed up the prices on used coaches and in most cases prices climbed back to normal levels.  I cannot speak for all of you but there is no way in hell I am spending the night in a hotel. My head wont lie on a community pillow, my body wrapped in community bedding and my fat butt sitting on a toilet seat 100 other people have used in the last 90 days. Call me Howard Hughes and a germ nut but it is what it is and this is the new mindset.  That is the beauty of RV's - my bed, my pillows, my kitchen, my toilet, my personal space. In other words you can lock the door to your bus and tell the world to go away.

People should not equate the huge boom in RV Sales as helping them sell their used coach for a premium.  I get RV sales and financials sent to me through RVDA as we are members. I dissect all the numbers and time and again the reports prove Class A sales are no where near what they used to be. We have to remember while RV sales are currently off the charts and dealers cannot get inventory on their lots, all of this has nothing to do with us who own older coaches. The entire boom in RV sales is almost all towables. Sales of new class A coaches, diesels in particular, are still depressed with diesel coaches seeing a 19 % drop. This also carries over to used coaches.

I think all of us are OK with our used coach values going forward but do not think for a second what you own is gold. The used diesel market is still crowded, inventory plentiful and there remains some awesome deals out there for those who are patient, take their time and look for good deals. These deals are out there and they undercut the price you can ask. I watch listings of used coaches and sometimes have to shake my head. Coach owners listing prices that are pipe dreams that will never be obtained. Some price their coaches based on emotional attachment. And then there are those who list coaches according to NADA values. NADA is nothing more then a price value that will get you into the ball park but what I am seeing is the sales that are being closed are selling well below NADA prices. I recently seen a used coach for sale and the seller was asking a $ 20 K premium because he oput new tires and batteries in it along with a few other updates. Excuse me sir but that extra $ 20 K will buy me a lot of new tires and batteries.

There is one last item you have to throw into the mix of used coaches when pricing them fairly and it is a biggie - financing. Many older coaches are being sold as cash deals because it is nearly impossible to get financing on old coaches.  Many buyers of older coaches are having to write checks for the full amount out of their 401 K's, proceeds from the sale of a home or by selling investments. This all means you, as a private seller,  are taking a lot of potential sales off the table because you cannot offer financing like a dealer can. Even worse, some dealers even have a hard time financing older coaches. I talked to one of my dealer buddies out West who specializes in Prevost sales. He told me he could get a non slide 2000 Prevost financed quicker then an 05 Monaco. Why ? Because he uses specialized banks who will buy his deals based on the coach versus age. It also equates to some dealers having personal relationships with banks. Let all of this sink in before selling your used coach - your buyer, depending on the age of your coach, is going to have a helluva time getting financing.

So in a nutshell, if you are buying than look for some screaming deals. If you are selling remember you are up against a lot of used coaches that are sitting on the market not to mention your market is limited in many cases to all cash sales. 

 

Chris,

Thanks for the insightful and informative commentary.  You confirmed what I suspected....but since there is a shortage of RV's, then I was curious.  My points, which you helped illustrate are that ....

People's "Recreation and Travel Lifestyles" have changed.  NO DOUBT and they will continue to change and evolve.  All I read says that we seasoned citizens may be in for many abrupt and interesting changes.  We have Season Tickets for NCSU Football and Basketball.  The BB tickets are in a "Club" or Lounge area where we have buffett meals and such.  Until there is an effective vaccine and anti-viral treatment, then social distancing and masking and such will be the norm.  We were CAREFUL when we attended the final Club Game as well as the first day of the ACCT.  We have NC Symphony Tickets.....how can we go to a concern and sit in theater seating and be comfortable with masks on?

I share your concerns about "conventional travel".  I am not quite as paranoid, so I certain am NOT knocking or putting down your decisions.  We have been on 5 trips this year.  Four of them were MH Trips.  In May, our favorite campground on the Outer Banks or Crystal Coast, Emerald Isle was BOOKED.  we got a 6 day slot PRE-Memorial Day.  Then in June, we went to our time share in Myrtle Beach.  I talked directly to the Housekeeping manager.  I knew what they were doing and they seemed to have a good plan.  The issue MIGHT have been if the "workers" were infected while cleaning up, but they were masked and wore gloves.  We decided to do a hybrid trip.  DW had planned a week MH trip right afterwards with our GD.  We had a three bedroom condo in MB.  So, we went down in the MH.  We went over on check in and verified that it had been cleaned and such.  We spent the night in the MH.  Then we went over the next morning.  We carried bedding (sheets) and also used the spare bedding on sight.  We sprayed and then covered all the main furniture.  We sprayed down all the other seats and chairs (dining).  THEN, we wiped down all the surfaces as well as the door knobs and light switches and thermostats and such.  We opened the screened balcony doors and the entrance doors and I put the AC on RECIRCULATE.  I turned on all the ceiling fans.  That combo condo (it was two with a connector) aired out all day in the low 90's and HIGH humidity.   Our family came in later that day and we all went back to the MH for dinner and they got back to the Condo late that night and buttoned it up.

Our next trip or the continuation of that was to Charleston.  We were CAREFUL.  Charleston has put in partitions on the carriage rides.  We ate out ONCE at a seafood restaurant where we walked through the dining area in masks to the outdoor patio and we were socially distanced out there.  That and one meal in June have been the ONLY times we have dined out.  

In late July, we headed back to Emerald ISLE.  PACKED.  When we left on Friday morning, the Bogue Sound Bridge looked like the mainland was being evacuated to the island.....

We found a small CG in rural NC on Lake Tillery.  IT was PACKED....and many RV's were sporting TEMPORARY plates.

Thanks again for responding.  I did NOT think that there would be a surge in Class A values....but, like many, I think that we have not "lost" any major value.  Never bought the Camelot as an investment.  My goal was to have a great time and not worry about it.  We have spent, in 11 seasons (skipped 2019) MORE on CG, Fuel, Insurance, Storage, Maintenance, Repairs, etc......than the depreciation.  I knew that our retirement travel plan was not gonna be cheap.....but we planned for it so that we could enjoy the fruits of our working years and still leave our children a little "Extra".  

I know folks that have NO direct heirs (they have a LOT of nieces and cousins watching the death notices) and they are postponing retirement.  Only a FEW actually LOVE or LIKE their jobs.  Many are afraid of boredom.  Many are afraid of running out of $$.  If we did not have our kids and GK's, I would be in a Prevost and have enough $$ in the safe to bury both of us...  We have had our 11 years of traversing the USA and Canada.  We have spent almost 700 days in the Camelot.  Our GK's have been with us for almost 9 months.  Our kids have joined us for long stays.  

I would NOT trade any of that.....so if the Camelot is kept until it is only good for salvage....so be it.  

Thanks again.....

[Pduggs]

It seems asking prices of DPs has gone up.  I researched the market hard back in 2017 and bought in early 2018.  I now regularly see DPs  like mine that are older and with more miles, asking more than what I paid 2.5 years ago. As Chris stated, these asking prices aren’t realistic.  
 

At any rate, I don’t intend to sell any time soon. So, I know my coach won’t be worth much when and if we sell it years from now. 

[Tom Cherry]

15 minutes ago, throgmartin said:

Tom:

I forgot to mention, I recently read an article where 2 boat dealers near me completely sold out of their inventory. 2 months ago I was shopping for a 32 - 40 ft cabin cruiser. I seen the prices and was floored. Then my brain trust ( my wife ) made mention of the fact that we already own a sinking asset and money pit ( our coach ). Why the hell would you buy another one ? If you are that stupid then you might as well buy an airplane as well. ( I love this woman and the way she reels me in from dumb ideas ). So now we are trying to buy an appreciating asset - land/acreage - that we can install electric, well and septic on and use for weekend getaways. Guess what ? Every other dang Floridian must have the same idea as these properties are being sold as quick as they are listed. I kid you not sales of high and dry vacant land is exploding down here in the swamp ( Florida ). If you want to see some crazy prices check out land values in the mountain areas of Georgia. Vacation or retreat properties are smoking hot right now.

I am going to make an offer on 2 acres on the Suwannee river tomorrow morning that has all utilities there, a drive cut into the property and an existing boat dock. It is all set up to park a coach on and as a matter of fact we can park several coaches there. ( Now just watch some jackwagon buy it out from under me ). 🙂

From everything I am seeing - social distancing is the new normal and anything, be it a boat, vacation property or an RV that can provide social distancing is in demand.

Your comment is interesting.  We were Kayaking on Lake Tillery with the GK's last week.  There are MANY lakeside lots that have really nice boathouses with elevated lifts and such......and some really NICE HOUSES.....  BUT, there are a LOT of them with concrete pads and utilities and have 4W or Class A MH's sitting there.  Some came in and out.  Others are there for the season (tires covered and such).  

Your plan sounds great.  

Your lifestyle as well as others.....is unique to YOU and many may be similar....but not one of us has the SAME needs or interests.  We will probably only do one more MAJOR trip.....the ABQ Balloon Festival.  Otherwise, we will go to Emerald Isle and the NC mountains.  

We have about 3 weeks of a very nice TimeShare that we and my daughter and GK's enjoy.  So, this year, we will still be "Out" for over 2 months.  

Practice your best Stephen Foster and Mark Twain imitation and enjoy the Suwanee.....

Boats.....  I had a nice 19 Ft I/O with a 302 Ford engine.  I would get up multiple skiers.  I gave up fishing.....when I took up skiing.  I skied until I was 68 or so.  I kept the boat and sold it when I was 71.  That boat was about $17.5 K new with a Galvanized trailer.  I bought it when it was 2 months old as the lad that had it impregnated his GF and SHE wanted a ring and a big wedding.....so the Boat had to go.  I can NOT imagine spending $50 - $75 K on a Ski or Wakeboard boat.  BUT, Lake Tillery was sporting a LOT of them.   

Who know.....

[Pduggs]

Just saw this on FB. My coach is the same year and almost identical build but I paid $30k less for mine 2.5 years ago, but mine did have about 10k fewer miles. 
 

Beautiful coach and wish the seller the best.  2008 Beaver Patriot with 31,000 miles. Asking $178,000

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by pduggs87@gmail.com

[throgmartin]

Tom:

In keeping with this topic let me add that we are witnessing another trend with used coaches. People are keeping what they currently own. They are renovating them, updating them, adding new equipment, etc. I will mention this here since a press release will come out next week in a trade magazine on our companies. We just released our 1st and 2nd quarter sales reports. It was a barn burner.

I met with our staff and told them in early February to batten down the hatches, save money and hold on. My goal was to keep our staff fully employed. I initially figured  that we were going to be in for a world of hurt with huge losses in sales/revenue. I had my executive director grab every PPP dollar we could get to protect our staff's salaries. I was reviewing our financials daily and then one day I started seeing this upward trend in sales. It was mind boggling at first and I had my director crunch numbers a second and third time to be sure they were accurate.  Our sales for all 3 companies lifted off like a rocket.  The reason ??  Coach owners are updating like crazy and pulling maintenance like never before.

It seems that all those things they had on their to do list but put off suddenly started taking priority.  Like several of our customers told us " If we can't travel then we might as well fix and update things ". Our service company has been booked out solid for months. I immediately realigned some marketing assets and threw our 2020 marketing program out the window because of the cancelled rally's. I had my Executive Director make some strategic ad buys which in the end resulted in even more sales. I had my director go on a massive buying spree of raw materials and parts to support our production processes and parts and service sales.

This is not just our own companies that are seeing exploding sales. I talked with Dave Pratt and he said they are seeing the same thing. They are up to their necks in work. Classic car guys, boaters, RV owners who are stuck at home are doing upgrades like crazy which includes chrome parts. I have a friend ( Ingrid calls her my girlfriend ) who owns the former Holiday Rambler factory and specializes in coach renovations and she is slammed with huge renovation jobs. My buddy who does contract work for us owns a metal fabrication company and he quit doing quotes and locked his doors to new business. He cannot keep up with jobs. What is crazy is that his new jobs are massive in scope.

But let me be clear, this has not all happened without some issues, that being staff.  It started taking its toll on our people. It is no secret we have dedicated staff that lives and breaths our companies and go to the moon and back for our customers, but they have worked themselves into the ground. Ingrid and I have been calling them into our office's one at a time and letting them know they WILL take a day off ( with pay ). We are forcing mini vacations on our people so they can get some downtime and reset their lives and we are paying out bonuses so they have the cash to have fun. They need this time with families to relax. I find it crazy that employees in other industries are sitting home not able to work while companies like ours have to watch the mental health of their staff and keep them from  being overworked and burnt out.

So what we are seeing with many of our customers is that they are going great guns on their coaches maintenance. I lost track of the number of customers who told us " we have no plans of buying a newer coach so will update what we have ". Honestly, it is a great thing to witness - owners coming to the conclusion " I can never replace the quality of what I have with a newer coach. I am keeping what I have and updating it ".

I can honestly say that despite the ongoing bad news with Covid outbreaks, violent protests and such, there are many great things happening in our country. I stay positive and stay focused on the good things.  While many businesses are tanking ( restaurants, etc. ) some companies are finding success. It is not all doom and gloom. 🙂

[throgmartin]

Paul, as I stated in another post on another thread, people need to be patient and look.

I had a customer pull in for service with a drop dead gorgeous Sig. He just bought the coach and wanted an inspection done and we found zero defects. I have never seen an 07 Sig in such amazing condition. It had been stored in doors its entire life ( unless out on trips ) and it showed. The exterior was flawless and it had low miles. He bought it off the back lot of a dealer for $ 90 K. If I knew about it I would have bought it myself.

I think I mentioned about the deal I was going to make a year ago on a 2002 double slide Prevost H 3-45 Marathon. This coach was also stored in doors and was flawless. It had 80 K miles, had just been updated, fully serviced, new batteries, tires, etc. I could have bought it at wholesale from the Prevost dealer for $ 130 K. I was ready to book a flight when my wife said NO..... 🙂

This is why I tell people to take their time, search all over the country and don't get impatient. There are some screaming deals out there. It reminds me of the first coach we bought. We lived in TN at the time and I bought a coach in Oregon at wholesale from a dealer. I flew out there and drove it back home. We used it for 2 years and then I sold it for more then I paid for it.

We bought our current coach new. What I did is nail down the coach we wanted with the options we wanted and then found 2 identical coaches at two separate dealers ( one was Tom Johnson and the other a small family RV center ). I actually made them bid against each other for the sale. Every time they submitted  a quote I e-mailed it to the other dealer. Each dealer knew what I was doing and over a weeks time the family owned dealer hit my mark and we bought from there. I saved thousands of dollars doing it like that and in the end ended up with a lot of add ons like satellite system and other items.

My advice to buyers is to research the coach and National prices for that model, do not get emotionally attached to the coach and be ready at a moments notice to walk away and continue your search. There are more coaches for sale then there is buyers so the buyer always has the advantage.

[Pduggs]

I agree Chris. There are a lot of good deals out there. One just has to be patient and research a lot of different sources. Many owners are asking unrealistic prices for their coaches, and I suspect they aren’t selling them.