Jump to content

70's or worse inflation about to hit?


Recommended Posts

Sorry if this type of subject is frowned upon on this forum, but I know there are a lot of smart people on here with much more experience than me. Anyone feel like we are about to get slammed with inflation on all the stuff we buy similar or if not worse than the 70's era? Someone mentioned about waiting to check prices on tires in the fall, but I fear everything is about to get very expensive and we would be mad at ourselves if we do not buy today. Seems most people I talk to are ignorant to the problems we face with the current monetary system. Please let me know your wise thoughts and how you are preparing so we can all learn.

Jarred A.

04 HR Navigator

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There’s so much going on that fuel everything. Inflation? It’s happening. Will it be like the 70’s then a huge recession like the early 80’s? Who knows.

I will say this, I’m not the brightest light, by a long shot. But every time us “little” guys get in the game, stocks, housing, whatever, we are already behind. We are chasing markets. The people with REAL money, already have an exit strategy. They will get out leaving many with a loss. When the devastation is over, and prices are low, those with money start it all over again. 
 

So when I hear “something” is going to happen, with the economy, I think someone is trying to sell the masses on their exit strategy. We need a down market to get loss so it can be bottomed and ran up again for more money to those smart enough to drive the market and not chase it. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just finished a 4,000 mile, 6 week trip to include NC, TN, AR, TX, KS, CO, MO, IL, IN, KY.  Bought 6 new Toyos at Cowser Tires in Fort Worth, along with 1 new wheel for $3,000. The G661's still looked great, but they would have been 6 years old in July.  Getting ready for a week trip to Tamarack, Beckley WV followed by a few days in Chuckey, TN this month.  Greensburg, IN for a Lee Greenwood concert and maybe back to IL for a few days in October.  Back to Fort Worth for a week at Christmas.  Probably FL for a couple of weeks in the winter.  Doing my best to wear this HR out before I check out!

Made a point of no particular agenda, avoid interstate highways and if you have to go through any city of any size, do it early in the morning after the riots have ended for the previous day.

If you need something or you intend to travel, I would do it now.  I remember a few years ago in CO paying $4.75 for diesel.  Not looking forward to that, but I fear its coming.

I'm 80, going on 17!

Roy M.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used to work in the financial area.  There is a saying... The stock market is the only thing people will not buy when its on sale.  If you go to the grocery and they have 2 liter Pepsi for 79 cents, you buy 4 because that is all they will let you buy.  However, if Pepsico stock drops by 50%, few will buy it until it goes back up.  It really is that simple...  of course you don't buy just one company... spread the risk over many, etc. etc.  As far as what is coming, I don't have a Chrystal ball but housing and lumbar prices seems like a very familiar song, hopefully a lesson was learned in 08-09 because I don't think we can afford another couple trillion here and a couple trillion there.  I don't think we will have the same mortgage crisis, but when the economy sputters there will be plenty of opportunities for those that prepare now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Inflation has been alive and growing for years. Will the rate increase…YES! You can add 7+% to the “official” inflation rate… limits how much our SS increases.

Friend runs a gas station and 2 years ago I could buy gas for 18 cents/gallon paying in 1964 and older 90% silver coins. Today it’s even less as the value of silver has doubled while gas has gone up 50%… closer to 13 cents. That’s how much the $ has declined in 57 years.

Bought a new machine before Christmas (2nd one in 50 years) because the year end closeout price was good and had the money sitting in the bank doing nothing. Figure I can sell it in 2 years for what I paid.

Finally the “news” is talking about inflation…duh, you can’t print Trillions of $ without inflation and pay people not to work without prices going up. Will it reach the Carter years… hopefully not for our kids and grands futures.

Edited by Ivylog
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I can relate to is.

I ran a business during the Jimmy Carter administration. 

We hired two people and purchased two extra truck s .

The new hires kept the trucks in line all day every day to get filled with diesel 

Then we switched every morning .

We also pd 18 percent interest on some new  business loans.

We  were fortunate not to file bankruptcy. 

As many business did.

But it took 5 years to pay off the  loan's. 

I see a re peat with this administration 

Like I have not since the Carter years.

 

I find that most don't remember those year's now so our young people may get a good education 😕

Only time will tell.

With more people getting paid NOT TO WORK.

It may not matter. To the masses. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Chuck B said:

Yes, this subject is frowned upon on this forum.  Why do you violate the forum rules?  Chuck B 2004 Windsor

I might add that what makes you so special to violate the rules?  Chuck B 2004 Windsor

So rules state we cannot talk about generalities on where our future prices might be to maintain our rigs and how we can plan for such? If someone wants to get political is that my fault for bringing the question?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Political or Policy driven ???

Policy is used to project the future.

Corporation s spend millions studying the future results created by today's policy's 

Regardless of politics. 

We all can see that today's policy's can creat very inflated fuel prices.

Study the past 6 months for example.

Now we did live with diesel at $4.00 +

Plus a gallon a few years ago . Many soon forget.

Many slowed down theirrv travels.

It's possible that we will have $8.00

Diesel in the near future.

That alone will curtail recreational travel.

Maybe that's the goal of some people?

I don't know. I don't see any of the above as Political,  just sharing experiences and future projections like every Corporation and family's planning budgets and future opportunities,  vacations.

Now if it costs double in fuel costs to harvest wheat, corn, soybeans etc. 

The cost to truck will increase.

Bread could double in cost on the shelves

And milk, cereal and meat.

All because of a few Policy's, goals, desires. 

Bill Gates states that the American puic will get used to

Lab manufactured meats.

His goals appear to be, no beef, no hogs maybe ?

 

And he is in no way an elected official,  politician. 

But every farmer,  Rancher,  meat packer listens to his every word very carefully. 

 

20210609_131923.jpg

20210609_131854.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JDCrow said:

Isn’t Billy Gates the largest farm owner in the US now? 

Yes He is.

Over the past many years.

Land has been a good solid long term investment. 

Now he can grow food, graze cattle? Or put all the land in a government funded set aside program.

And get pd to leave the ground idle and sell carbon credits or collect set aside funds, or both. 

 

Only time will tell what he chooses to do.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, John Haggard said:

Yes He is.

Over the past many years.

Land has been a good solid long term investment. 

Now he can grow food, graze cattle? Or put all the land in a government funded set aside program.

And get pd to leave the ground idle and sell carbon credits or collect set aside funds, or both. 

 

Only time will tell what he chooses to do.

I think he is only interested in cow farts, and how to reduce them. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting you bring up tires. Like everything else now days there is a shortage of rubber. The latest article I read indicated the turn around for the rubber farms after suffering a blight is 7 years. GM, Chrysler, Ford and other large manufacturers know about this and locked in their supplies. I have been watching with curiosity tire prices and anything that hints at a shortage. So far I haven't seen it but heard it was around the corner.

In regards to inflation it is a known fact that the more money the Fed's print the bigger the risk for inflation. To compound the problem is the massive debt the Government is running ( 30 trillion at the moment ) and the big unfunded programs that have been or about to be launched. 

What has kept our economy flying is people are not getting conservative with their money yet. Credit Card debt is high, savings low and people, despite the huge price increases in lumber, fuel and many other things has not panicked society - yet. Still I believe there is a perfect storm brewing as consumers can only absorb so much with price increases before they turn tail and run for cover. When this happens there will be a retraction.

This is one of the most complicated economic situations I have ever witnessed in my years as an adult. There is so much at play here  with factors such as unemployment, shortage of workers, shortage of raw materials, Covid lock downs, etc. To be honest I am personally shocked that we are not knee deep in a recession right now.

Chuck B, my suggestion is to allow the moderators to moderate this forum. Dave, Scotty, Frank and Larry do an awesome job of that. I see no need for a member to step in, put on a police badge and act as the forums super cop. If a rule was broken I am sure Dave or Scotty will address it with the member behind close doors like gentlemen. If there is a problem with a post that you see may I suggest you take it up with Dave or Scotty privately in a message or e-mail. As for myself, I see no problem with the OP's post. Politics were not mentioned and he simply asked about the economic situation we are all living in. Just my humble opinion. 🙂 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't taken a trip recently, getting ready to though and see the impact of inflation and or supply shortages not only for the motorhome but also the home.  My recent observations.

Last year I was finally ready to build a garage after finishing the new house.  Bad timing as when I was getting quotes the cost of lumber started to skyrocket.  I had been dealing with a company to build a pole barn type garage, looked like a quality build with very good prices.  My neighbor had actually put a down payment down on  a building with them.   I was working out the details and was then informed that they reduced their territory and would build one for me & found out that the neighbors down payment was sent back.  I then contacted local builders, one quoted me labor only saying the material was my responsibility as they couldn't predict pricing & that it had gone up ~30% in the last couple months (this was July 2020).   I then opted to build a full metal building, which was ~$20K cheaper then I could have been a wood frame building.  But because of supply shortages it took until Dec for it to be delivered and finally erected in Jan.  When the sales rep came to do the final walk through I asked if he was seeing any price increases.  and said yes and in fact my building would cost ~$10K more just 6 months after I made my down payment.

Fast forward to Feb 2021 when I was getting ready to frame out a 23'X26' shop inside the garage, I got a quote on most of the material I needed  YIKES, so I decided to wait and monitored lumber futures for a month as they continued to climb.  Finally decided to bit the bullet and places an order with 84 Lumber near me.  I had bought most of my material for the new house from them and went back and compared prices.   3/4" Advantec decking was essentially doubled, and most of the lumber was 2-3 times higher.  Wire prices went up also and I paid 2X for 12/2 romex.    I also had to wait a month for the insulation I had ordered and had a hard time finding 2" thick foam board insulation.  GUESS WHAT all the prices continued to climb and only now are lumber futures going down but still higher then they were in Mar 2021.  Last time I was at Lowes the price of 1/2" OSB, which is used for the wall sheeting and roofs, was $70 a sheet. 

I needed new tires for my coach and called 3 large vendors near me.  I wanted Toyo's, they could not find any and was quoted either Continentals or Yokohama's, they must have all checked the same warehouses cause each said they found 8 Yoko's and the prices were similar.  I got the Yoko's but the date codes were 3320 so they were ~11 months old but I didn't have a choice.  The vendor I got them from that his regular suppliers were struggling to keep him in tires and that he actually received some smaller tires with date codes that were 4 years old but most people won't know to ask about this so he'll still be able to sell them.

What about food prices, all of it is going up.  The reported May inflation at 5% but from my point of view it seems much higher. 

All said, if this continues the economy is going to coming to a screeching halt and there is a threat of a recession. 

I guess the only benefit will be is that the number of RV's on the road and in campgrounds will be reduced so for people who can afford to travel have it a little easier.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fifty year’s ago a Millionaire was a rich person…unfortunately today it takes being a multi-millionaire because of inflation. This has been caused by both parties deficit spending… we are still paying interest on the debt from WW2 as rarely have we had even a balanced budget. 
 

I remember when a 6% interest rate was considered a good rate and today’s 3% is artificially low. Pretty sure it’s not IF inflation is ahead so will our debt payments double or even triple?  Some economists say once we go over $30T owed, the game is over.

Because of an agreement with Saudi Arabia in 1972, everything to do with the production,  transportation,  and sale of oil is done in US dollars…Petro dollars. Other countries have to buy our dollars so they can buy oil, artificially holding up the value of the US dollar. China is already circumventing system and pushing to be the “Reserve Currency”. 
 

We can survive higher inflation, even Carter levels but unfortunately, it’s not IF, but when China becomes the Reserve Currency and that’s when it really hits the fan. I do not see a good ending with China having the “Favored Nation” status.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Moderators are following this thread (there are five of us), and no rules have been violated.  Three comments:  

1. The OP mentioned inflation the the context of RVing. There’s no rule against discussing the economy. It was done in the context of RVing, which would still comply with the rules even if it was “political”. 

2. Discussing past experiences regarding the economy isn’t considered politics. If it was done in a Democrats vs Republicans or a political nature, we’d take a hard look. We’re not about being censors, just keeping the conversation somewhat on-topic.  

3. As a reminder, if you see something you think might be a violation of the rules, click on the three little dots in the upper right hand corner and “Report” it.  DO NOT call someone out in the thread.  The Moderators will most likely discuss it, and we will handle it. 
 

Carry on…

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Scotty. Being new here I’m floating trying to make sure to follow rules I haven’t read. LOL. We just always hit “accept” anymore and don’t read the fine print.

To continue, went for a drive late last night and my wife said there’s an odd looking truck at the Ford dealership. We drive over and WOW!

On their lot, for new vehicles: a 2016, 2020, (2) 2019 (3) 2017 Superdutys. They had 1 row of used trucks. Usually they have 3 rows of NEW trucks. They have a used lot 1/2 away, so used trucks are never on their new lot, till now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We had a very large trip planned this coming winter, well over 10,000 miles and many RV parks.  We are now scaled way down, just heading south to Palm Springs for the winter and will hang out there for 6 months.  Diesel prices are climbing every week.  I'm a retired builder.  I can't imagine how you bid a job these days with the prices of building materials so unstable.  Material that used to just be "consumables" are now too expensive to throw away.  A ten foot stick of 3/4 galvanized pipe for $44, really?  Lumber, forget about it.  I need to buy new tires since my date codes are at the 7 year mark.  Was going to go with Toyo's, I hope I can find some and I'll have to pay a ransom amount for them.  Not to worry, we'll probably get another 1% cost of living adjustment on our Social Security.  5% inflation, bullcrap.  We are at double digit rates without any doubt.  Gas at Costco in Spokane was $3.11 last week, up a dollar a gallon from a year ago.  Diesel is running around $3.40 a gallon, right now.

Woody Miller

09 Dynasty Regal IV

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thank you for the stories of experiences from you all.

 

If this next statement crosses the line I will be happy to delete.

 

From friend to friend - I dont want to be labelled as a fear monger or be accused of yelling fire in a crowded theater, but this could get really ugly really fast.

 

I will note, I am typically 100% wrong 100% of the time, but think back to the toilet paper saga. You go into the store and realize there has been a run on toilet paper so you think to yourself "what the heck is going on" I better grab this last roll before I'm left with none. There are no certainties but this could go for almost anything and everything. Someone mentioned about sitting on the sidelines waiting till these prices come back down to earth. But if the herd realizes that holding on to this paper money is losing them buying power while waiting then there could be a rush to transfer those paper currencies into something that will maintain it's value (ie 2x4s).

 

So, I please urge you NOT to be one of those that goes out and starts hoarding everything off the shelves. But if you need to just slowly gather what you would need maybe for the next year but being very considerate for the next person in line. 

 

"They" say this could never happen to America but they also said Rome could never fall. Will the powers at be really tell us whats coming? If not, we need to help each other as long as the moderators are okay with how we handle it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, JDCrow said:

Thanks Scotty. Being new here I’m floating trying to make sure to follow rules I haven’t read. LOL. We just always hit “accept” anymore and don’t read the fine print.

To continue, went for a drive late last night and my wife said there’s an odd looking truck at the Ford dealership. We drive over and WOW!

On their lot, for new vehicles: a 2016, 2020, (2) 2019 (3) 2017 Superdutys. They had 1 row of used trucks. Usually they have 3 rows of NEW trucks. They have a used lot 1/2 away, so used trucks are never on their new lot, till now.

Just passed the Kentucky speedway,  Warsaw Kentucky on rt 35.

Still thousands of Ford trucks parked.

This Sunday afternoon 

20210520_143545.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, John Haggard said:

Just passed the Kentucky speedway,  Warsaw Kentucky on rt 35.

Still thousands of Ford trucks parked.

This Sunday afternoon 

20210520_143545.jpg

I’ve heard that, and it’s the same for RVs as well I hear 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...