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RV values in the future


Jim Bob

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Hey everyone,

Let me start by saying that I absolutely am not looking for a political discussion.  However, the political wind is changing and I'm curious how and/or if you think it will impact RV values.  In particular, the ideas of reducing/eliminating the internal combustion engine, fuel prices and the overall health of the economy.

I'm only a couple years from retirement and currently have a 95 Dynasty, but have been thinking of upgrading to a new to me 04-07 Monaco.  I have the luxury of time at this point and I'm curious what you think will happen to RV values over the next 2 years?  Break out your crystal balls.

Jim

 

 

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Where is that blond Jeannie in the bottle ?

When you need her.

 

For me

RVs,  recreation 🤑🤑🤑 vehicles are  exempt from projected values.

Buy what we can afford.

Maintain 

Enjoy.

 

Im not going to fret or worry or guess.

We have lived through 18 % interest rates and $4. Plus gallon diesel.

Just adjusted to the day at hand and enjoyed 

 

Its your money 💰 

Its your commitment

Its your decision 100 percent. 

 

 

 

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I would not worry about the political climate in regards to the value of our existing coaches. The way I see it, the older well built coaches will hold their value whereas the new crap that is being built these days will not.

The old vintage vehicles and pre-emission control RV's, etc. will not be affected by any clean air legislation that comes down the pike in the future. Only new vehicles built under any new legislation.

I'm sticking with what I got as I know every idiosyncrasy of my coach. Besides, I still like and enjoy my coach and would not have any problem going back to Full-Time RVing with it and live comfortably  anytime in the future if needed.

Plus it will be my survivors problem when that time comes.

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12 minutes ago, Dr4Film said:

I would not worry about the political climate in regards to the value of our existing coaches. The way I see it, the older well built coaches will hold their value whereas the new crap that is being built these days will not.

The old vintage vehicles and pre-emission control RV's, etc. will not be affected by any clean air legislation that comes down the pike in the future. Only new vehicles built under any new legislation.

I'm sticking with what I got as I know every idiosyncrasy of my coach. Besides, I still like and enjoy my coach and would not have any problem going back to Full-Time RVing with it and live comfortably  anytime in the future if needed.

Plus it will be my survivors problem when that time comes.

I do worry about the political climate because I have lived what's potentially coming but agree with Richard. We've got our last RV as I'm getting ready for mostly fixed income life. One day, if I can't afford to move it anymore, it will make a luxury chicken coop.

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Like most of you that have one... I'm looking for my last RV.  Frankly, I would not really even consider upgrading if the old 95 had a slide out in it.  Its a 34 footer and really just not enough room to spend a month or two in comfortably.  I've got a fairly specific coach in mind as to length, year, etc....  so my plan has been to just keep an eye out and be ready to pull the trigger when the right one at the right price comes on the market.... but again I just wonder what pricing could look like a year from now once the effects of a changing administration begin to take effect.

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Personally, I think that now it's generally not the best time to buy. Unless you find a desperate or uninformed sale. Owners and dealers know that the demand has increased but I think it will cool off when/if things normalize and some realize that this is not what they imagined when they bought and get tired of payments. Good time to sell and wait it out but what would I do with myself, plus the inflation that must come at some point. Just my opinion and I am frequently wrong...

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If you can afford a used $80,000 plus used vehicle the cost of fuel is insignificant to the daily cost of and RV parks in a few years. As for value I feel tafter this recent surge in I gotta have one, I gotta get away you may see prices stabilize lower.

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2 hours ago, John Haggard said:

We have lived through 18 % interest rates and $4. Plus gallon diesel.

I remember those interest rates what I don't know is why I didn't buy a whole big bunch of CDs.  Oh, I remember now I didn't have any money, I had kids.   :rofl:        We had a tent and loads of fun.  It was great but I don't want to go back ( to tents ).   Then we got a popup, then a bumper pull, then a gas rig, then a diesel pusher, and finally our forever RV our 03 Windsor.  We have had an amazing life now that I think about it, and it was mostly unscripted much less planned, at least not by me

 I don't like the direction things are going right now but we will make it the best we can and RV as long as we can. 

 God has been good to us and I have hope that better days will come eventually  :thumb:

54 minutes ago, Ivan K said:

I think that now it's generally not the best time to buy

Ivan,  at my age I can't wait for the best time.   :laugh:  I don't buy green bananas either.  😉

Edited by Ray Davis
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Jim:

I am knee deep in the RV industry and have been for 15 years. I routinely report here on this forum about current market conditions on used coaches. So this is what I am seeing and hearing and also what I believe will happen.

Looking back to March/April, used coach prices tanked - Big Time. I had a customer buy an 04 Diplomat for $ 25 K. Another customer bought a gorgeous, mint 2008 Sig for $ 90 K. This downward pricing pressure was all based on a knee jerk reaction to Covid but those prices are now long gone. People started buying and ordering new and used RV's like crazy and since dealers were unable to get new coaches to sell they started beefing up their used coach inventories and as a result drove the wholesale costs of used coaches up. Now dealers are having a hard time finding used coaches which is why auction sales volume is down. I just got the latest wholesale price report a few days ago and motorized RV's went up again an average of $ 6,000 / 12 %. If you take a look at the chart ( see below ) you will see the trends for yourself. Look at April when Covid was really roaring. I think used coach prices are unrealistic at the moment but then people keep paying them. Remember, dealers drive the value of used coaches and you can look at Kelly blue book prices all you want, but the " black " book is what sets the prices of used coaches and those prices are based on wholesale deals and sales primarily at auctions.

This leaves a coach owner who wants to sell now and upgrade to another used coach with a dilemma. You will get more for your coach now if you sell but you will also pay more when you buy another coach. I do not foresee a crash on prices coming in the near future but I do see a righting of the market coming down the road. In other words, the market will stabilize and prices will retreat and come back to normal and then retreat again. All the RV market reactions have been primarily Covid and interest rate induced. As I stated people have bought RV's like never before and it has drove prices up on new units as well as used units. But there is a day of reckoning coming and that will happen when all the newbies who just got into RV'ing because of the pandemic find that RV'ing isn't for them and dump their units. I am predicting manufacturers will start catching up with their backlog on orders late this year ( if lock downs don't occur all over again ). I am also predicting a glut of RV's in late 2022. That is when used prices will correct themselves and values will head downward.

So what does all this mean for the owner of a used coach who wants to upgrade today ? You will be able to sell your coach right now for more then what it is worth. But you will pay more for another coach ( unless you can find a distress sale ). Two Years from now you will experience more depreciation then normal as the market corrects itself and the glut of RV's hits.

In regards to the political climate, I am staying out of that one. All I can say is I am not getting a real warm fuzzy feeling about the future and my wife and I are right now moving assets, buying certain assets while also protecting our investments. While I am always positive in life I am also a realist and what I see and feel for the near future has moved me into protection mode. We are beefing up our financial positions with all of the companies we own to weather any storm that may come.

Wholesale RV Values Hit Another All Time High - RV PRO (rv-pro.com)

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11 hours ago, Jim Bob said:

Hey everyone,

Let me start by saying that I absolutely am not looking for a political discussion.  However, the political wind is changing and I'm curious how and/or if you think it will impact RV values.  In particular, the ideas of reducing/eliminating the internal combustion engine, fuel prices and the overall health of the economy.

I'm only a couple years from retirement and currently have a 95 Dynasty, but have been thinking of upgrading to a new to me 04-07 Monaco.  I have the luxury of time at this point and I'm curious what you think will happen to RV values over the next 2 years?  Break out your crystal balls.

Jim

 

 

Be careful with that 07 end range. Everything I read tells me you do not want a particulate filter that requires regen. I think some 07 coaches may have regen. We have an 06 coach with an 05 ISL and it is so nice to pull into a truck stop and skip the DEF selection. We also have friends who were stranded because of a plugged particulate filter. Had to drive their toad back to Florida and wait for the coach to be repaired before they could bring it home. As for trying to time the market, I am the worlds worst for giving advice on that. We tend to buy high and sell low!🙃 We purchased our 2006 Diplomat when coach prices were at an all time high and then the crash of 2008 hit.

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Slightly different circumstances during the "Great Recession" there was a huge swing in the supply/demand curve.  People had purchased coaches prior to the bubble bursting and were desperate to get rid of them.  A lot of people lost their coaches.  It was a spiral as more coaches were for sale prices were driven down.  Manufacturers, including Monaco, suffered the consequences with many going bankrupt.

We had been looking to upgrade from our Class C, had actually been looking for years.  Over that period of time we visited many dealerships and looked at both new and used coaches so we had a good idea what we liked and didn't like, and what was a quality coach and what wasn't.  In late 2008 I happen to see a listing for a coach in Florida as I was driving my parents from WI to FL for the winter.  After dropping them off my wife and I decided to stop and look at the coach.  It was a beautiful coach and an unbelievable price (~50% off NADA) and was being offered by a company that moved coaches for the bank as they were repo'd.  He buy a repo and flip it fast (his comment was that he'd rather make two fast nickles the one long dime) .  We drove back to TN and I thought about the coach and finally pulled the trigger in early Dec, did a wire transfer down payment, and picked up the coach the next week.

I think what happened in 2008/9 could happen in the coming years as the supply/demand curve are upset with the impact of the current market caused by Covid.  I have been looking at used prices and in some cases I see some unrealistic prices and have read of stories of long lead times on new coaches and people purchasing used for premium prices.  IMHO the bubble will burst again, and who knows, I may be waiting in the sidelines to pick up a nice coach for a great deal.  I own a 2002 Windsor 38KPD but just finished a 40X50' garage just in case we get lucky.  

BTW, I also was a victim of the 2008 recession, the day I wired my down payment for the coach I was notified that the mining complex I was working for would be shutting down.  Luckily I made sure to have an emergency fund.  With the spare time we made a trip to Alaska. 

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We are thinking of maybe selling our 2009 45’ Dynasty now because we may be going the opposite direction in size as we have a bass boat and want to be able utilize that when we go places for the winter (we live in Minnesota). Having a house again (we lived full time in a coach not the dynasty) might help us with that decision. And now is the tine to sell? We would replace it with a much smaller motorhome that we could easily park at any park or parking lot as it’s harder to get into some rv parks. It would need to tow at least 5,000 lbs. But...we might wait for a year or two to get a replacement because of the higher prices/demand. Also with the higher demand comes less inventory and a harder time finding what we want? We will not buy new but would like to get something a couple to a few years old to avoid the huge depreciation new RVs go through and to get something (hopefully) that most of the bugs have been worked out. I’m handy and and have replaced/repaired many items on our RVs we’ve had so I’m not afraid of that but I don’t want a money pit either. 
But...in saying all that ...it’s quite a change going from a 45’ luxury coach to a 24-27’ class c or b-plus. But also now is the time to sell! If we wait until next year the market and demand may not be so good? We could probably get a better deal on the one we want to but but loose on selling the one we have? I know it may even put loss for gain but I’m someone who likes to gain gain ! 😊

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When we bought our coach in 2008, we got a heck of deal.

But we had to sell our Class C during the recession.  It was neither a seller or buyer market.  I sold it myself, first listing it on Craigslist, which was a mistake.  The company I had worked for was kind enough to let me park it on their property next to a high traffic road.  Got lots of calls, some lookers but no takers for a while.  The mechanic that I use, and who had worked on my Class C's engine and transmission knew I was selling. He also knew I took decent care of my coach, brought his parents to come and look at it and they wrote me a check on the spot.  I didn't get what it might have been worth prior to the recession but I got a fair price. 

So selling now and being able to wait to buy would make sense if you can do that.  

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We just upgraded our 2002 Discovery 37T to a 2008 Monaco Camelot 42PDQ.  Logic is that I have retired and my wife is close to retirement. Once she's retired we won't need to be shelling out more $$ for repairs etc.  This 40K mile unit ought to last us until we are too old to enjoy it.  Value retention?  Not a factor.  Coaches have a one way value.  It goes down from the day you get it.

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1 hour ago, CapnDean said:

Coaches have a one way value.  It goes down from the day you get it.

Ain't that the God's honest truth!

My coach certainly doesn't look like the day I bought it due to mostly a handful of things. The way it has been used with three trips to Alaska and back to the lower 48 with hopefully a few more before I am done (waiting for easing up on the border restrictions). The Thermal Checking on the sides of the coach has taken its toll especially on the entry door. Here is a good article about Thermal Checking - https://www.rvtravel.com/thermal899/ The front mask is still original and it is black and heavily cracked (needs to be removed). Plus there are numerous places where the clear coat has peeled off (plan to cover up with some shaker cans of clear coat someday). And of course many dings, nicks and scratches caused by a variety of "things".

Anyway, the inside is in very good shape as compared to when it was purchased with many upgrades.

But most importantly it is mechanically sound and road worthy! That is worth more to me than how pretty it looks.

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Regarding a year range to avoid the regen and DEF, our 2009 does not have the DPF or DEF.  It is an ISM500.  100k miles on it now.  I think we paid a little too much, but, the floorplan was perfect.  It had all of my must haves.  The Co-pilot is thrilled to death with it.  So we flew to Texas and bought it.  We have no intention of selling.  Didn't buy it as an investment, it's a poor investment.  Time is something you can not buy or get back once it's gone.  We don't plan on living full time in it, unless all hell breaks loose.  It's our escape from the nasty white stuff in  the winter.  Many might ask "how can you afford it or afford the fuel?".  Our response is "how can we not?".

If you find the right coach, buy it and enjoy it.  You or the coach might not be around next year.  Like I said, we might have paid too much and could have continued to shop, but we've put 40k miles on in the last couple of years and love it.  No regrets.  Funny thing was it might have been a fair price, the bank didn't want to see it first or have any questions about it.

My one and only concern is the Kongsberg chassis multiplex.  If that goes out we will lose our coach, but as long as it's working, we're going.

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11 hours ago, woodylmiller said:

Regarding a year range to avoid the regen and DEF, our 2009 does not have the DPF or DEF.  It is an ISM500.  100k miles on it now.  I think we paid a little too much, but, the floorplan was perfect.  It had all of my must haves.  The Co-pilot is thrilled to death with it.  So we flew to Texas and bought it.  We have no intention of selling.  Didn't buy it as an investment, it's a poor investment.  Time is something you can not buy or get back once it's gone.  We don't plan on living full time in it, unless all hell breaks loose.  It's our escape from the nasty white stuff in  the winter.  Many might ask "how can you afford it or afford the fuel?".  Our response is "how can we not?".

If you find the right coach, buy it and enjoy it.  You or the coach might not be around next year.  Like I said, we might have paid too much and could have continued to shop, but we've put 40k miles on in the last couple of years and love it.  No regrets.  Funny thing was it might have been a fair price, the bank didn't want to see it first or have any questions about it.

My one and only concern is the Kongsberg chassis multiplex.  If that goes out we will lose our coach, but as long as it's working, we're going.

Woody,

Get a backup made of the software and firmware for the multiplex system. I believe you could get this done by M&M. Bill Groves also is knowledgeable on the subject.

https://www.mmrvelectronics.com/

 

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Bob - The Kongsberg chassis vs the Intellitec house multiplex systems are two completely different multiplex systems.  So are the Eaton dash multiplex switches in a chassis multiplex coach.

There is no way to backup or replace the chassis Kongsberg Chassis multiplex CCM computer module.  This module has been obsolete now for years.

Getting a backup on the house Intellitec house multiplex computer program is highly recommended and as you mentioned, there are folks out there that can do it. 

From my experience, The chassis multiplex problems have been associated with dash switch module problems (REV can provide replacements), improper fusing of the large PCB in the FRB causing fires(Download files has a procedure for proper fusing), or +5 volt power supply issue that control the smartwheel functions.  Luckily, I've not seen direct CCM failures - at least not yet.. 

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